Avalon Plan · Venus, TX 76084

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily · 234 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bright, welcoming, and effortlessly livable, the one-story Avalon proves that great design lives in the details. From the to the open-concept living spaces and covered patio, this home is thoughtfully crafted for the way you live today. The kitchen is the heart of the home, with a spacious island and seamless flow into the dining and family rooms - perfect for casual mornings, festive dinners, and everything in between. A private primary suite at the back of the home creates a relaxing retreat, complete with a spacious bath and an expansive closet with the choice to add laundry room access for the ultimate convenience. Three additional bedrooms surround a shared bath, offering comfort, privacy, and space for everyone in the household. With its graceful layout and natural sense of flow, the Avalon offers more than comfort - it offers possibility. Whether you're just starting out or simply looking for a place that feels like it was made for you, the Avalon adapts with ease. This is a home where lasting memories are made, and everyday moments feel extraordinary.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 234 days

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,755.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL); Venus Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 491 students, 80% FRL); Venus H S (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 725 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,287 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,755
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -0.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Patrick Henry Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,553 (+0%)	0mo	$314,890	$203	96
104 John Laurens Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,553 (+0%)	2mo	$289,990	$187	88
126 Patrick Henry Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (+4%)	2mo	$324,890	$202	84
134 Yorktown Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$171	78
223 Patton Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+7%)	1mo	$325,900	$197	71
311 Patton Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+7%)	1mo	$325,900	$197	70
136 Kennedy Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,597 (+3%)	1mo	$270,000	$169	70
523 Bennie Leonard St	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,690 (+9%)	2mo	$279,000	$165	65
319 Julian Davis Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+7%)	2mo	$320,900	$194	59
210 Julian Davis Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,379 (-11%)	1mo	$307,900	$223	58
320 Julian Davis Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,379 (-11%)	2mo	$301,900	$219	54
317 Julian Davis Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,379 (-11%)	2mo	$307,900	$223	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $95,509
• Equity at exit: $215,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $285,103
• Equity at exit: $415,159

Cash invested: $84,491 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,526/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,640

Max offer price $268,967

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-122	+0% $-227	+5% $-331	+10% $-435
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-320	+0% $-227	+5% $-134	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-150	base $-227	+0.5pp $-305	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,439
• Closing costs: $9,053
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,535	$1.28	0d	1	0.05mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	24d	1	0.23mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	1d	1	0.23mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	9d	1	0.25mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	5d	1	0.26mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	14d	1	0.31mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	0d	1	0.34mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	21d	1	0.38mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	13d	1	0.40mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	0d	1	0.42mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	45d	1	0.44mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	4d	1	0.45mi
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	45d	1	0.47mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	0.49mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	45d	1	0.50mi
315 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	0d	1	0.51mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	24d	1	0.51mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	5d	1	0.54mi
427 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,965	$1.61	45d	1	0.56mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	3d	1	0.57mi
501 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,945	$1.60	45d	1	0.57mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	26d	1	0.58mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	26d	1	0.61mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	45d	1	0.76mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	0d	1	0.78mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	0.78mi
645 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	45d	1	0.79mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	0d	1	0.81mi
656-660 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	0d	1	0.83mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	9d	1	0.85mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	17d	1	0.86mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	45d	1	0.86mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	9d	1	0.86mi
733 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	26d	1	0.89mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	45d	1	0.89mi
729 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,995	$1.53	45d	1	0.91mi
748 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	45d	1	0.92mi
704 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,850	$1.36	46d	1	0.95mi
712 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	26d	1	0.96mi
261 Heritage Hills Pkwy Venus, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,305	$2.53	0d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 222 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 221 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 217 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 216 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-01-07
    price $299,990 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    Bright, welcoming, and effortlessly livable, the one-story Avalon proves that great design lives in the details. From the to the open-concept living spaces and covered patio, this home is thoughtfully crafted for the way you live today. The kitchen is the heart of the home, with a spacious island and seamless flow into the dining and family rooms - perfect for casual mornings, festive dinners, and everything in between. A private primary suite at the back of the home creates a relaxing retreat, complete with a spacious bath and an expansive closet with the choice to add laundry room access for the ultimate convenience. Three additional bedrooms surround a shared bath, offering comfort, privacy, and space for everyone in the household. With its graceful layout and natural sense of flow, the Avalon offers more than comfort - it offers possibility. Whether you're just starting out or simply looking for a place that feels like it was made for you, the Avalon adapts with ease. This is a home where lasting memories are made, and everyday moments feel extraordinary.

17. 2025-10-30
    listed $304,990 Active 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    Bright, welcoming, and effortlessly livable, the one-story Avalon proves that great design lives in the details. From the to the open-concept living spaces and covered patio, this home is thoughtfully crafted for the way you live today. The kitchen is the heart of the home, with a spacious island and seamless flow into the dining and family rooms - perfect for casual mornings, festive dinners, and everything in between. A private primary suite at the back of the home creates a relaxing retreat, complete with a spacious bath and an expansive closet with the choice to add laundry room access for the ultimate convenience. Three additional bedrooms surround a shared bath, offering comfort, privacy, and space for everyone in the household. With its graceful layout and natural sense of flow, the Avalon offers more than comfort - it offers possibility. Whether you're just starting out or simply looking for a place that feels like it was made for you, the Avalon adapts with ease. This is a home where lasting memories are made, and everyday moments feel extraordinary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,903
• − Property taxes: −$4,526
• − Insurance: −$1,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − Depreciation: −$8,778
• Taxable loss: −$7,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Listed $304,990 Zillow