170 SW 9th Ave

Lake Butler, FL 32054

$50,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $614/mo
• Annual: $7,367/yr
• Cap rate: 21.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.62%
• DSCR: 3.34
• 1% rule: 2.40%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#681 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Union (town): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 73 in FL (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.