457 Caracara Ln

Jefferson, CO 80456

$175,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 429 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,662/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $1,042/mo
• Annual: $12,505/yr
• Cap rate: 13.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.52%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Park County School District No. Re-2 (rural): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 176 in CO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edith Teter Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #604 of 966 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 39% FRL); South Park Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 98 students, 36% FRL); South Park High School (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #167 of 381 statewide, top 46%, 124 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $175k implies a 2088% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.2% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.