457 Caracara Ln · Jefferson, CO 80456

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 429 Days on market

Built 2020 2.10 ac lot $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

Key facts

• Hunting trails
• Wide open lot
• World class fishing

Tags

• UNDER CONSTRUCTION CABIN
• WIDE OPEN LOT
• WORLD CLASS FISHING
• HIKING TRAILS
• HUNTING TRAILS
• OHV TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owned by a corporation/trust; Zoned Residential Rural
• HOA & community: Elkhorn Ranch Owners Association with a professionally managed annual fee of $40; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Four off-street parking spaces; Unpaved gravel parking
• Utilities: Electricity available, connected and to lot line; Propane available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family house; One level with ground-level entry; Property marked as fixer / under construction; Unattached property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Approximately 1,500 building area (above grade)
• Exterior features: Foothills, meadow and partially wooded lot with aspen and mixed vegetation; Level lot in a mountainous setting; Dirt and gravel road frontage with year-round public access; Well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Under construction living room; Electric fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.2% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Park County School District No. Re-2 (rural): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 176 in CO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edith Teter Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #604 of 966 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 39% FRL); South Park Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 98 students, 36% FRL); South Park High School (math 10% / reading 70%, grade F, #167 of 381 statewide, top 46%, 124 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $175k implies a 2088% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.52%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $37,961
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $118,310
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80456

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $1,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,343

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,141	-5% $1,092	+0% $1,042	+5% $993	+10% $943
Rent	-10% $832	-5% $937	+0% $1,042	+5% $1,147	+10% $1,252
Rate	-1.0pp $1,130	-0.5pp $1,087	base $1,042	+0.5pp $997	+1.0pp $951

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 429 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 428 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 425 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 424 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 423 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 417 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 416 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $175,000 Active 415 DOM
10. 2026-03-13
    price $175,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

11. 2026-03-13
    price $175,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

12. 2025-07-18
    price $185,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

13. 2025-07-18
    price $185,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

14. 2025-06-25
    price $210,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

15. 2025-06-25
    price $210,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

16. 2025-05-14
    price $225,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

17. 2025-05-14
    price $225,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

18. 2025-04-10
    listed $250,000 Active 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

19. 2025-04-10
    listed $250,000 Active 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Handyman Special in Elkhorn Ranches - Big Views, Bigger Potential! Under-construction cabin on 2 acres in Jefferson. 3-bed layout with well and septic started. Huge mountain views-ideal project for builders or handy buyers.

20. 2017-08-21
    soldstatus $8,000 Sold 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Trees-YES. Power-NO. Phone-CLOSE. Excellent camp or build location. Power is nearby. All useable land. Nice tree cover. Awesome views of the snowcaps. Anyone in need of nice acreage shouldn't miss this property. Trees & views at this price?!? Don't miss it! L236 EHR F-4

21. 2017-07-15
    status Under Contract 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Trees-YES. Power-NO. Phone-CLOSE. Excellent camp or build location. Power is nearby. All useable land. Nice tree cover. Awesome views of the snowcaps. Anyone in need of nice acreage shouldn't miss this property. Trees & views at this price?!? Don't miss it! L236 EHR F-4

22. 2017-06-18
    listed $8,000 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Trees-YES. Power-NO. Phone-CLOSE. Excellent camp or build location. Power is nearby. All useable land. Nice tree cover. Awesome views of the snowcaps. Anyone in need of nice acreage shouldn't miss this property. Trees & views at this price?!? Don't miss it! L236 EHR F-4

23. 2016-05-31
    historical
24. 2015-11-02
    listed $9,900 Active
25. 2015-04-30
    historical
26. 2014-05-14
    listed $12,900
27. 2014-05-11
    historical
28. 2013-06-05
    listed $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $810 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,556
• − Management: −$2,556
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $10,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $10,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Park County School District No. Re-2
• NCES district ID: 0803840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,367
• Composite: 30.72/100
• National rank: #11416
• State rank: #89 of 176 in CO

Livability — Jefferson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 396

Population outlook (Park County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,411 people
• By 2030: 17,584 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 17,261 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 16,115 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 14,174 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 11,928 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 38% Italian 11%
• Foreign-born: 32%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Park

• 2024 margin: R (+16.5) · D 40.2% · R 56.7% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.5 2020: R+17.0 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.57%
• Current HPI: 334.2224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+1256.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $175,000 IRES
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $175,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $185,000 IRES
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $185,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $210,000 IRES
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $210,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $225,000 IRES
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $225,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listed $250,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listed $250,000 IRES
• 2017-08-21 Sold (MLS) $8,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-15 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-18 Listed $8,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-31 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-02 Listed $9,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-30 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-14 Listed $12,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-11 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-05 Listed $12,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $810 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.