513 Ranch Rd

Granbury, TX 76049

$233,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$1
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-472/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $65,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-472/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John And Lynn Brawner El (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 798 students, 70% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?