513 Ranch Rd · Granbury, TX 76049

$233,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1996 0.46 ac lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est. $1/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***SELLER OFFERING $5,000.00 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COST*** Located in the heart of Granbury with easy access to Hwy 377! Exterior of home features a nice size front yard and extra large back yard without backyard neighbors! Interior has nice large open living room, breakfast area, open kitchen with newer appliances and existing refrigerator. Split bedrooms all with large walk in closets. Separate large utility room. Lake and boat ramp are less than two miles away. If you're looking for a great home centrally located in the city with recent updates and improvements then come see this house.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Newer appliances
• Walk in closets

Tags

• EXTRA LARGE BACK YARD
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• BREAKFAST AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-472/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John And Lynn Brawner El (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 798 students, 70% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,273 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,047
• List price: $233,000
• Delta: -1.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1830 Hitching Post Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+1%)	2mo	$234,900	$162	84
615 Whisperview Cir	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (+6%)	0mo	$234,900	$154	74
1818 Boot Hill Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+3%)	6mo	$219,000	$147	67
1710 Broken Bow Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	2mo	$249,000	$178	67
1009 Mustang Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+1%)	2mo	$235,900	$163	66
1712 Boot Hill Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-10%)	3mo	$254,900	$197	59
814 Branding Iron Trl	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,309 (-9%)	9mo	$219,000	$167	59
1014 Teresa Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-4%)	0mo	$254,900	$184	58
1714 Broken Bow Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-10%)	4mo	$254,900	$197	53
1013 Teresa Ct	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (+6%)	8mo	$235,000	$155	46
1701 Smokehouse Rd	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,225 (-15%)	11mo	$195,000	$159	45
1008 Mustang Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-15%)	11mo	$247,000	$201	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,802
• Equity at exit: $34,741

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-15,271
• Equity at exit: $20,146

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 701
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,239/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$1
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $226,057

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $27	+0% $-39	+5% $-105	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-117	+0% $-39	+5% $38	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $20	base $-39	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.23mi
807 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.24mi
809 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.25mi
811 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.26mi
1713 Bronco Rd Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1520	$1,800	$1.18	9d	1	0.28mi
1627 Summerhill Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	45d	1	0.51mi
1525 E 2nd St Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	889	$1,150	$1.29	9d	1	0.60mi
1010 Teresa Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	26d	1	0.76mi
1010 Dawn Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,750	$1.62	45d	1	0.80mi
1017 Meadowlark Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	14d	1	1.00mi
3142 Shady Grove Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,950	$1.34	26d	1	1.01mi
1111 Dove Hollow Rd Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1789	$2,399	$1.34	45d	1	1.03mi
1220 Crawford Ct Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,739	$1.80	0d	14	1.07mi
306 Shady Grove Dr Unit 103 Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.20mi
800 Chanel Dr Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,948	$1.89	0d	11	1.28mi
1000 Quiet Cv Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,700	$2.02	0d	30	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1 · $12/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $233,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $233,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    price $239,000 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    ***SELLER OFFERING $5,000.00 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COST*** Located in the heart of Granbury with easy access to Hwy 377! Exterior of home features a nice size front yard and extra large back yard without backyard neighbors! Interior has nice large open living room, breakfast area, open kitchen with newer appliances and existing refrigerator. Split bedrooms all with large walk in closets. Separate large utility room. Lake and boat ramp are less than two miles away. If you're looking for a great home centrally located in the city with recent updates and improvements then come see this house.

17. 2026-04-05
    price $240,000 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    ***SELLER OFFERING $5,000.00 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COST*** Located in the heart of Granbury with easy access to Hwy 377! Exterior of home features a nice size front yard and extra large back yard without backyard neighbors! Interior has nice large open living room, breakfast area, open kitchen with newer appliances and existing refrigerator. Split bedrooms all with large walk in closets. Separate large utility room. Lake and boat ramp are less than two miles away. If you're looking for a great home centrally located in the city with recent updates and improvements then come see this house.

18. 2026-03-24
    price $242,000 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    ***SELLER OFFERING $5,000.00 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COST*** Located in the heart of Granbury with easy access to Hwy 377! Exterior of home features a nice size front yard and extra large back yard without backyard neighbors! Interior has nice large open living room, breakfast area, open kitchen with newer appliances and existing refrigerator. Split bedrooms all with large walk in closets. Separate large utility room. Lake and boat ramp are less than two miles away. If you're looking for a great home centrally located in the city with recent updates and improvements then come see this house.

19. 2026-03-16
    price $243,000 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    ***SELLER OFFERING $5,000.00 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COST*** Located in the heart of Granbury with easy access to Hwy 377! Exterior of home features a nice size front yard and extra large back yard without backyard neighbors! Interior has nice large open living room, breakfast area, open kitchen with newer appliances and existing refrigerator. Split bedrooms all with large walk in closets. Separate large utility room. Lake and boat ramp are less than two miles away. If you're looking for a great home centrally located in the city with recent updates and improvements then come see this house.

20. 2026-03-01
    listed $245,000 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    ***SELLER OFFERING $5,000.00 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COST*** Located in the heart of Granbury with easy access to Hwy 377! Exterior of home features a nice size front yard and extra large back yard without backyard neighbors! Interior has nice large open living room, breakfast area, open kitchen with newer appliances and existing refrigerator. Split bedrooms all with large walk in closets. Separate large utility room. Lake and boat ramp are less than two miles away. If you're looking for a great home centrally located in the city with recent updates and improvements then come see this house.

21. 2025-06-30
    historical
22. 2025-06-06
    price $269,999
23. 2025-05-02
    price $270,000
24. 2025-04-07
    price $275,000
25. 2025-03-22
    price $280,000
26. 2025-03-03
    price $290,000
27. 2025-02-05
    listed $295,000 Active
28. 2020-11-09
    soldstatus
29. 2020-10-27
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2020-10-09
    status Pending
31. 2020-10-02
    historical Active Option Contract
32. 2020-09-20
    listed $194,900 Active
33. 2009-06-08
    soldstatus
34. 2009-06-05
    soldstatus
35. 2009-05-07
    historical
36. 2009-04-30
    listed $100,000
37. 2008-03-27
    soldstatus
38. 2008-03-27
    soldstatus
39. 2008-03-14
    historical
40. 2008-01-30
    listed $86,900
41. 1996-10-18
    soldstatus
42. 1989-10-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,264 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,025/yr (+$85/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$3,239
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$12
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$4,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $242,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $243,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $269,999 NTREIS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-05 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2020-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-10-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-10-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-09-20 Listed $194,900 NTREIS
• 2009-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-05-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-04-30 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2008-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-03-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-01-30 Listed $86,900 NTREIS
• 1996-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,239 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.