608 Grey St

Milan, NM 87021

$59,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax + insurance: −$502
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $94/mo
• Annual: $1,133/yr
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.53%
• DSCR: 2.67
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $16,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($411 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#144 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.