608 Grey St · Milan, NM 87021

$59,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 1954

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2/3 bedroom, 1 bath, approx. 1315 sq. ft. Huge living room with gas furnace in living room. Partial wood flooring. Includes stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer. Covered patio, unattached garage, shed. Access to back yard on oversized lot. All fenced in. PRICED TO SELL

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Remodeled bathroom
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOM
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#144 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($411 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.53%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $13,448
• Equity at exit: $26,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $39,816
• Equity at exit: $41,231

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87021

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,030

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1415 Willow Dr Milan, NM	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-04-24
   soldstatus
2. 2025-03-24
   status Pending
3. 2025-02-28
   price $59,500
4. 2024-11-12
   listed $64,500 Active
5. 2018-12-06
   soldstatus 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   2/3 bedroom, 1 bath, approx. 1315 sq. ft. Huge living room with gas furnace in living room. Partial wood flooring. Includes stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer. Covered patio, unattached garage, shed. Access to back yard on oversized lot. All fenced in. PRICED TO SELL

6. 2018-10-15
   listed $49,500 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   2/3 bedroom, 1 bath, approx. 1315 sq. ft. Huge living room with gas furnace in living room. Partial wood flooring. Includes stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer. Covered patio, unattached garage, shed. Access to back yard on oversized lot. All fenced in. PRICED TO SELL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$5,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants-Cibola County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501170
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 22% —
• Median HH income: $35,996
• Composite: 18.23/100
• National rank: #14064
• State rank: #74 of 95 in NM

Livability — Milan

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #21042

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milan, NM
• Population (ZIP): 3,164

Population outlook (Cibola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,324 people
• By 2030: 25,594 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 24,117 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 22,568 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,653 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 12,719 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 33% Native American 25% White 21% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Scottish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cibola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.6pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+20.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-24 Pending — NMMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $59,500 NMMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed $64,500 NMMLS
• 2018-12-06 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2018-10-15 Listed $49,500 NMMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $608 · +45.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.