15430 S Main

Lytle, TX 78052

$249,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,769 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,137/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-394/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-394/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Landscaping — The lawn is dry and patchy, indicating a need for irrigation and possibly sodding.
• Minor: Porch — The metal railing is in good condition, but the fire pit area could be cleaned and organized.
• Minor: Kitchen Countertops — The countertops appear to be in good condition, but could be cleaned and polished.
• Minor: Bathroom Fixtures — The fixtures appear to be in good condition, but could be cleaned and polished.
• Minor: Exterior Paint — The exterior walls have some discoloration, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.
• Major: Landscaping — The lawn is dry and patchy, indicating a need for irrigation and possibly sodding.