15430 S Main · Lytle, TX 78052

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,769 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Built 1970 Average condition 0.59 ac lot $141/sqft · 9% below area Est $274k · 9% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this charming one-story traditional ranch-style home, perfectly situated on an oversized lot with room to grow and personalize. The partially open floor plan seamlessly connects the main living area to the dining room, creating a space for both relaxing and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample storage with a generous amount of upper and lower cabinetry, a spacious breakfast bar, and oversized windows allowing natural light to pour in. Retreat to the primary bedroom, your private haven to unwind after a long day. Outside, you'll find a spacious yard shaded by mature trees and featuring a partially covered patio, an ideal setting to create your own outdoor oasis. Whether you're envisioning summer barbecues, or a serene garden, this backyard has the potential to become your personal retreat! Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• One story
• Eat in kitchen
• Oversized lot

Tags

• ONE STORY
• TRADITIONAL RANCH STYLE
• OVERSIZED LOT
• PARTIALLY OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-394/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $213,667 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,113
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -9.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19831 Doc Holiday Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-3%)	1mo	$277,000	$161	60
15242 Cottage	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-4%)	9mo	$145,000	$85	60
16024 Stratford Cv	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	4mo	$319,900	$197	51
15125 Norvell	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-10%)	4mo	$369,990	$231	51
16004 Stratford Cv	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	1mo	$313,900	$193	50
16021 Stratford Cv	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	3mo	$319,900	$197	50
16032 Stratford Cv	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	6mo	$318,900	$196	46
16000 Windview Ct	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	7mo	$294,000	$181	45
16005 Delgado Hls	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	9mo	$315,900	$194	43
16037 Delgado Hls	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	9mo	$301,900	$186	40
16136 Farmer	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	14mo	$295,900	$182	40
16029 Delgado Hls	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	9mo	$296,900	$183	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $73,536
• Equity at exit: $160,470

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $217,073
• Equity at exit: $294,465

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $244,252

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $53	+0% $-33	+5% $-119	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-117	+0% $-33	+5% $52	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $31	base $-33	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$2,137	$1.37	2d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-02-04
    status Back on Market 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Step into this charming one-story traditional ranch-style home, perfectly situated on an oversized lot with room to grow and personalize. The partially open floor plan seamlessly connects the main living area to the dining room, creating a space for both relaxing and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample storage with a generous amount of upper and lower cabinetry, a spacious breakfast bar, and oversized windows allowing natural light to pour in. Retreat to the primary bedroom, your private haven to unwind after a long day. Outside, you'll find a spacious yard shaded by mature trees and featuring a partially covered patio, an ideal setting to create your own outdoor oasis. Whether you're envisioning summer barbecues, or a serene garden, this backyard has the potential to become your personal retreat! Schedule a showing today!

18. 2026-01-27
    historical Active Option 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Step into this charming one-story traditional ranch-style home, perfectly situated on an oversized lot with room to grow and personalize. The partially open floor plan seamlessly connects the main living area to the dining room, creating a space for both relaxing and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample storage with a generous amount of upper and lower cabinetry, a spacious breakfast bar, and oversized windows allowing natural light to pour in. Retreat to the primary bedroom, your private haven to unwind after a long day. Outside, you'll find a spacious yard shaded by mature trees and featuring a partially covered patio, an ideal setting to create your own outdoor oasis. Whether you're envisioning summer barbecues, or a serene garden, this backyard has the potential to become your personal retreat! Schedule a showing today!

19. 2026-01-21
    listed $249,000 New 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Step into this charming one-story traditional ranch-style home, perfectly situated on an oversized lot with room to grow and personalize. The partially open floor plan seamlessly connects the main living area to the dining room, creating a space for both relaxing and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample storage with a generous amount of upper and lower cabinetry, a spacious breakfast bar, and oversized windows allowing natural light to pour in. Retreat to the primary bedroom, your private haven to unwind after a long day. Outside, you'll find a spacious yard shaded by mature trees and featuring a partially covered patio, an ideal setting to create your own outdoor oasis. Whether you're envisioning summer barbecues, or a serene garden, this backyard has the potential to become your personal retreat! Schedule a showing today!

20. 2025-10-30
    historical
21. 2025-06-07
    listed $249,000 New
22. 2024-08-01
    historical
23. 2024-06-22
    price $325,000
24. 2023-10-01
    listed $350,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This charming one-story traditional ranch-style home is in average condition and could benefit from moderate renovations to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — The lawn is dry and patchy, indicating a need for irrigation and possibly sodding.
• Minor Porch — The metal railing is in good condition, but the fire pit area could be cleaned and organized.
• Minor Kitchen Countertops — The countertops appear to be in good condition, but could be cleaned and polished.
• Minor Bathroom Fixtures — The fixtures appear to be in good condition, but could be cleaned and polished.
• Minor Exterior Paint — The exterior walls have some discoloration, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.
• Major Landscaping — The lawn is dry and patchy, indicating a need for irrigation and possibly sodding.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting.
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value.
• Resale Kitchen Countertops — Clean and polished countertops can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom Fixtures — Clean and polished fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers.
• Rental Landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can attract more renters and make the property more appealing to potential tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · The lawn is dry and patchy, indicating a need for irrigation and possibly sodding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Porch · The metal railing is in good condition, but the fire pit area could be cleaned and organized.	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen Countertops · The countertops appear to be in good condition, but could be cleaned and polished.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom Fixtures · The fixtures appear to be in good condition, but could be cleaned and polished.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior Paint · The exterior walls have some discoloration, which could be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · The lawn is dry and patchy, indicating a need for irrigation and possibly sodding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$32,000–112,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen Countertops — Clean and polished countertops can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom Fixtures — Clean and polished fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can attract more renters and make the property more appealing to potential tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-01-27 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-01-21 Listed $249,000 LERA
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-06-07 Listed $249,000 LERA
• 2024-08-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-06-22 Price Changed $325,000 LERA
• 2023-10-01 Listed $350,000 LERA