Danford Plan

Erie, CO 80516

$272,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,442/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax + insurance: −$599
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-553/mo
• Annual: $-6,634/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $100,562

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $272k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-553 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#46 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black Rock Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #95 of 966 statewide, top 11%, 607 students, 10% FRL); Erie Middle School (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D+, #52 of 270 statewide, top 19%, 731 students, 14% FRL); Erie High School (math 48% / reading 71%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 1,754 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 11% FRL vs 27% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($169k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage and potential leaks are visible.
• Major: exterior fencing — The fencing appears to be in poor condition.