Danford Plan · Erie, CO 80516

$272,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · Townhouse · 144 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Village Cooperative of Erie is UNDER CONSTRUCTION to give active seniors (62+) a fabulous home ownership option in this beautiful area! The city of Erie offers a progressive civic vision with a genuine small-town feel which makes it the perfect location for our newest Village Cooperative in Colorado. You will be able to live the lifestyle you've earned as you enjoy all the benefits of ownership without any of the maintenance hassles in this wonderful community that offers all the recreation and amenities to enjoy whether you are working or retired. You simply won't find a better value anywhere in the area with all the amenities. It offers a carefree lifestyle that lets you enjoy more of

Key facts

• Reading areas
• Hobby shop
• Guest suite

Tags

• COMMUNITY AND CLUB AREAS
• HOBBY SHOP
• READING AREAS
• GUEST SUITE
• GARDEN PLOTS
• FULLY SECURE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $272,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Danford)
• Exterior features: Located in Village Vis community, Erie, CO

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan home (Danford)

🏗️ New construction. The $272,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,150.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-553 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#46 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black Rock Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #95 of 966 statewide, top 11%, 607 students, 10% FRL); Erie Middle School (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D+, #52 of 270 statewide, top 19%, 731 students, 14% FRL); Erie High School (math 48% / reading 71%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 1,754 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 11% FRL vs 27% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($169k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 Blue Sky Way Unit 12-201	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,271 (-3%)	3mo	$317,700	$250	63
3155 Blue Sky Cir #102	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,271 (-3%)	9mo	$350,000	$275	63
2800 Blue Sky Cir Unit 2-102	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,271 (-3%)	2mo	$305,064	$240	62
3045 Blue Sky Cir Unit 18-102	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,271 (-3%)	2mo	$355,000	$279	61
1450 Blue Sky Way #102	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,271 (-3%)	6mo	$329,000	$259	60
2875 Blue Sky Cir Unit 4-107	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,267 (-3%)	6mo	$370,000	$292	60
1425 Blue Sky Cir Unit 15-107	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,271 (-3%)	10mo	$333,500	$262	58
2985 Blue Sky Cir Unit 7-304	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	1mo	$317,000	$274	51
3095 Blue Sky Cir Unit 13-203	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	6mo	$325,000	$281	50
3155 Blue Sky Cir #104	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	8mo	$360,000	$311	49
1425 Blue Sky Cir Unit 15-105	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	4mo	$328,000	$284	48
3100 Blue Sky Cir #205	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	9mo	$295,000	$255	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-100,530
• Equity at exit: $53,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-160,388
• Equity at exit: $31,053

Cash invested: $100,562 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80516

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,442 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,387/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,142

Max offer price $279,150

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-305	-5% $-429	+0% $-553	+5% $-677	+10% $-801
Rent	-10% $-746	-5% $-649	+0% $-553	+5% $-456	+10% $-360
Rate	-1.0pp $-372	-0.5pp $-462	base $-553	+0.5pp $-646	+1.0pp $-741

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,788
• Closing costs: $10,774
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2802 Ridge View Cir Erie, CO	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1595	$2,394	$1.50	6d	2	0.14mi
16785 Sheridan Pkwy Broomfield, CO	3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,445	$2.45	0d	36	0.43mi
3035 Blue Sky Cir Unit 10-105 Erie, CO	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,995	$1.73	22d	1	0.61mi
1736 Peak Loop Broomfield, CO	3.0	3.5	1650	$2,950	$1.79	26d	1	0.68mi
1752 W 167th Ave Broomfield, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,582	$2.33	4d	27	0.70mi
3045 Blue Sky Cir Unit 18-202 Erie, CO	2.0	2.0	1259	$2,000	$1.59	15d	1	0.72mi
16600 Peak St Broomfield, CO	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1357	$2,728	$2.01	0d	17	0.76mi
1151 Spring Pl Broomfield, CO	3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,482	$2.69	0d	98	0.89mi
16893 Palisade Loop Broomfield, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1173	$2,260	$1.93	0d	26	1.22mi
16815 Huron St Broomfield, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,088	$2.29	15d	23	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $272,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $272,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $272,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $272,000 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,118
• − Property taxes: −$5,387
• − Insurance: −$1,796
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − Depreciation: −$10,448
• Taxable loss: −$13,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,152
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J
• NCES district ID: 0805370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,571
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #4353
• State rank: #23 of 86 in CO

Livability — Erie

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #5110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 39,048
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 39,048
• Household income: $168,725
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 355.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.34%
• Current HPI: 242.1832
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.48%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B