614 Windsor Ave

Lawrenceville, VA 23868

$183,200C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,480 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,511/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$961
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $969/yr
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $51,296

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $183k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($969/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#258 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #130 of 131 in VA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brunswick County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.