614 Windsor Ave · Lawrenceville, VA 23868

$183,200

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,480 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1900 0.47 ac lot $53/sqft · 28% below area Est $253k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step back in time with this charming early 1900s home filled with timeless character and architectural beauty. From the moment you enter, you'll notice the beautiful original molding, elegant archways, and rich hardwood floors that run throughout much of the home. Spacious living areas feature a classic fireplace, adding warmth and charm, while large windows bring in natural light. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the inviting covered front porch or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the yard. This home offers a rare blend of historic charm and everyday livability—perfect for those who appreciate craftsmanship and attention to detail. There's two sheds on the property offering additional storage and plenty of parking on the cement pad. House is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Elegant archways
• Covered front porch
• Classic fireplace

Tags

• ORIGINAL MOLDING
• ELEGANT ARCHWAYS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CLASSIC FIREPLACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($969/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#258 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #130 of 131 in VA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,066 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,164
• List price: $183,200
• Delta: -27.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $17,298
• Equity at exit: $71,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $67,083
• Equity at exit: $103,266

Cash invested: $51,296 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23868

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$961
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $907/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $183,200

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,800
• Closing costs: $5,496
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   Step back in time with this charming early 1900s home filled with timeless character and architectural beauty. From the moment you enter, you'll notice the beautiful original molding, elegant archways, and rich hardwood floors that run throughout much of the home. Spacious living areas feature a classic fireplace, adding warmth and charm, while large windows bring in natural light. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the inviting covered front porch or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the yard. This home offers a rare blend of historic charm and everyday livability—perfect for those who appreciate craftsmanship and attention to detail. There's two sheds on the property offering additional storage and plenty of parking on the cement pad. House is being sold as-is.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $183,200 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   Step back in time with this charming early 1900s home filled with timeless character and architectural beauty. From the moment you enter, you'll notice the beautiful original molding, elegant archways, and rich hardwood floors that run throughout much of the home. Spacious living areas feature a classic fireplace, adding warmth and charm, while large windows bring in natural light. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the inviting covered front porch or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the yard. This home offers a rare blend of historic charm and everyday livability—perfect for those who appreciate craftsmanship and attention to detail. There's two sheds on the property offering additional storage and plenty of parking on the cement pad. House is being sold as-is.

3. 2026-04-18
   listed $181,400 Active 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   Step back in time with this charming early 1900s home filled with timeless character and architectural beauty. From the moment you enter, you'll notice the beautiful original molding, elegant archways, and rich hardwood floors that run throughout much of the home. Spacious living areas feature a classic fireplace, adding warmth and charm, while large windows bring in natural light. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the inviting covered front porch or unwind in the screened porch overlooking the yard. This home offers a rare blend of historic charm and everyday livability—perfect for those who appreciate craftsmanship and attention to detail. There's two sheds on the property offering additional storage and plenty of parking on the cement pad. House is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $907 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,502 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 65.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,262
• − Property taxes: −$907
• − Insurance: −$916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$5,329
• Taxable loss: −$2,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$525
• After-tax cash flow: $1,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100480
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,085
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6520
• State rank: #130 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lawrenceville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #9024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrenceville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,215

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,860 people
• By 2030: 13,946 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,029 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 10,370 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 7,708 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 5,718 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 54.1% · R 45.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: 26.5pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+15.0 2016: D+18.7 2012: D+25.3 2008: D+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Current HPI: 98.6309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $183,200 RVLG
• 2026-04-18 Listed $181,400 RVLG

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $907 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.