18715 Sonoma Hwy #25

Boyes Hot Springs, CA 95476

$217,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $1,473/mo
• Annual: $17,674/yr
• Cap rate: 14.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.09%
• DSCR: 2.29
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $60,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $217k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $217k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#774 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, schools B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.1% in Boyes Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.