18715 Sonoma Hwy #25 · Boyes Hot Springs, CA 95476

$217,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 1999 $169/sqft · 71% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sparkling clean 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home set in a peaceful 55+ park in Sonoma Valley, just minutes from shops and top-rated dining. The home offers a bright interior, in-unit washer and dryer, covered entry, and carport parking for two. Low-maintenance outdoor space includes garden-ready planter boxes, two storage sheds, and a newer AC unit for added comfort.Space rent is $665 for new buyer, park to verify.

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Carport parking
• Covered entry

Tags

• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• COVERED ENTRY
• CARPORT PARKING
• GARDEN-READY PLANTER BOXES
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• NEWER AC UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $217k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $217k).
• Recommended offer: $210k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.1% in Boyes Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#774 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, schools B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,490 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.09%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,724
• List price: $217,000
• Delta: 71.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18715 Sonoma Hwy #25	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,286 (0%)	0mo	$180,000	$140	100
11 Ramon Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+12%)	11mo	$105,000	$73	32
33 Ramon St	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+9%)	19mo	$185,000	$132	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $51,002
• Equity at exit: $32,355

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $135,201
• Equity at exit: $18,762

Cash invested: $60,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $1,473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $217,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,250
• Closing costs: $6,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18260 Las Lomas Rd Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$3,750	$2.78	23d	1	0.37mi
19019 5th St W Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$3,400	$2.64	14d	1	0.72mi
21 Ramon St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	23d	1	0.73mi
210 Tuscany Pl Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	14d	1	0.92mi
17253 Park Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,600	$2.77	44d	1	1.02mi
434 Bernice Ln Unit 1546207P Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$4,564	$4.66	14d	1	1.07mi
655 W Spain St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1349	$3,525	$2.61	14d	1	1.11mi
340 Church St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1282	$3,750	$2.93	44d	1	1.23mi
126 Blue Wing Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,975	$2.57	14d	2	1.32mi
126 Blue Wing Dr #11 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	14d	1	1.32mi
751 Juniper Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1550	$3,900	$2.52	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $217,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $217,000 Contingent (Show) 54 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $217,000 Contingent (Show) 53 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $217,000 Contingent (Show) 52 DOM
5. 2026-04-08
   listed $217,000 Active 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   Sparkling clean 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home set in a peaceful 55+ park in Sonoma Valley, just minutes from shops and top-rated dining. The home offers a bright interior, in-unit washer and dryer, covered entry, and carport parking for two. Low-maintenance outdoor space includes garden-ready planter boxes, two storage sheds, and a newer AC unit for added comfort.Space rent is $665 for new buyer, park to verify.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,173/yr (+$98/mo · 246.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,155
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$1,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,331
• − Management: −$3,331
• − Depreciation: −$6,313
• Taxable income: $14,943
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,586
• After-tax cash flow: $14,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Boyes Hot Springs

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #22355

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment B+ Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $217,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $477 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.