14936 Reyes Rd

Fort Worth, TX 76052

$289,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,484/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-981/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-981/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $248k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lance Thompson El (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 825 students, 7% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: interior walls — Significant discoloration and potential water damage are visible on the interior walls.
• Minor: interior flooring — No visible damage to the flooring, but it may need cleaning or minor repairs.