14936 Reyes Rd · Fort Worth, TX 76052

$289,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 Fair condition 4,617 sqft lot Est $291k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-981/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lance Thompson El (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 825 students, 7% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,403 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,739
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14932 Reyes Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	1mo	$290,999	$199	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,845
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-74,542
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76052

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $278,172

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $18	+0% $-82	+5% $-182	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-180	+0% $-82	+5% $16	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-8	base $-82	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1413 Mustang Canyon Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,125	$1.22	5d	1	1.41mi
108 Telegraph Trl Newark, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	18d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $289,999
3. 2026-03-10
   price $291,999
4. 2026-02-26
   price $301,999
5. 2026-02-15
   listed $310,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home has a good exterior but requires significant interior repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major interior walls — Significant discoloration and potential water damage are visible on the interior walls.
• Minor interior flooring — No visible damage to the flooring, but it may need cleaning or minor repairs.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the appearance and value of the home.
• Rental repair and clean interior flooring — A clean and well-maintained floor is important for rental properties and can attract tenants.
• Both repair interior walls — Addressing the water damage and discoloration will improve the home's overall condition and appeal to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
interior walls · Significant discoloration and potential water damage are visible on the interior walls.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior flooring · No visible damage to the flooring, but it may need cleaning or minor repairs.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Rental repair and clean interior flooring — A clean and well-maintained floor is important for rental properties and can attract tenants. ↑
• Both repair interior walls — Addressing the water damage and discoloration will improve the home's overall condition and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,249
• Household income: $143,555
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 358.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 235.7417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $289,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $291,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $301,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $310,999 NTREIS