3229 Route 430

Lakewood, NY 14712

$369,000A-

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,424 sqft · Built 1931 · MultiFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$535
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,310
• Net cashflow: $6,220/mo
• Annual: $74,637/yr
• Cap rate: 26.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.24%
• DSCR: 4.21
• 1% rule: 2.98%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/5.0-bath multifamily listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($75k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $369k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $103k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 26.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.