3229 Route 430 · Lakewood, NY 14712

$369,000

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,424 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1931 2.64 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a truly unique opportunity with this expansive 5,000+ square foot home, offering eight bedrooms and five bathrooms—perfect for those seeking space, character, and potential. Rich in charm, the property showcases stunning natural and ornate woodwork throughout, just waiting to be restored to its full beauty with a little TLC. Enjoy peaceful living in a tranquil setting, complete with lake right with dock, for added lifestyle appeal. The home features a large wraparound porch—ideal for relaxing or entertaining—along with an in-law suite that includes its own private entrance, offering flexibility for extended family or guests. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a spacious exterior barn with multiple garage doors, perfect for storage, hobbies, or workshop use. The home is vinyl sided and offers a newer roof and vinyl windows, providing a solid foundation for your vision. This property sits on over 2.5 acres, offering space and privacy. With its size, character, and incredible potential, this property is a rare find ready to be brought back to life.

Key facts

• 2.64 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1931

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/5.0-bath multifamily listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($75k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $369k).
• Cap rate 26.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $103k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $369,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.24%
• DSCR: 4.21
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $597,224
• Equity at exit: $332,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.3%
• Equity multiple: 15.01×
• Total profit: $1,447,436
• Equity at exit: $716,886

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,577/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,310
• Net cashflow: $6,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,127

Max offer price $369,000

Occupancy floor 38%

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	3	1.5	$11,000
Total (5 units)			$11,000

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 1105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

   Step into a truly unique opportunity with this expansive 5,000+ square foot home, offering eight bedrooms and five bathrooms—perfect for those seeking space, character, and potential. Rich in charm, the property showcases stunning natural and ornate woodwork throughout, just waiting to be restored to its full beauty with a little TLC. Enjoy peaceful living in a tranquil setting, complete with lake right with dock, for added lifestyle appeal. The home features a large wraparound porch—ideal for relaxing or entertaining—along with an in-law suite that includes its own private entrance, offering flexibility for extended family or guests. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a spacious exterior barn with multiple garage doors, perfect for storage, hobbies, or workshop use. The home is vinyl sided and offers a newer roof and vinyl windows, providing a solid foundation for your vision. This property sits on over 2.5 acres, offering space and privacy. With its size, character, and incredible potential, this property is a rare find ready to be brought back to life.

2. 2026-03-26
   listed $369,000 Active 1105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

   Step into a truly unique opportunity with this expansive 5,000+ square foot home, offering eight bedrooms and five bathrooms—perfect for those seeking space, character, and potential. Rich in charm, the property showcases stunning natural and ornate woodwork throughout, just waiting to be restored to its full beauty with a little TLC. Enjoy peaceful living in a tranquil setting, complete with lake right with dock, for added lifestyle appeal. The home features a large wraparound porch—ideal for relaxing or entertaining—along with an in-law suite that includes its own private entrance, offering flexibility for extended family or guests. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a spacious exterior barn with multiple garage doors, perfect for storage, hobbies, or workshop use. The home is vinyl sided and offers a newer roof and vinyl windows, providing a solid foundation for your vision. This property sits on over 2.5 acres, offering space and privacy. With its size, character, and incredible potential, this property is a rare find ready to be brought back to life.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,577 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,407 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 18.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $132,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$4,577
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,560
• − Management: −$10,560
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable income: $73,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,533
• After-tax cash flow: $57,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $369,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,577 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.