14646 San Juan Dr

Detroit, MI 48238

$81,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1924 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $399/mo
• Annual: $4,790/yr
• Cap rate: 12.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.12%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $22,680

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 10.1% in Detroit — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.