14646 San Juan Dr · Detroit, MI 48238

$81,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1924 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home on Detroit!!!! this well-maintained property boasts newer windows, an updated kitchen, and an updated bathroom. Enjoy the convenience of being close to fantastic restaurants, shops, major highways, and more. Don't miss the opportunity !

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Newer windows
• Close to shops

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPS
• CLOSE TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Brick/mortar foundation; About 800 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 33 x 112 (0.09 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,785 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.12%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $34,560
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14601 San Juan Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	816 (+6%)	4mo	$37,000	$45	82
14619 Greenlawn St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	804 (+5%)	5mo	$52,000	$65	71
7326 Ellsworth St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-2%)	13mo	$35,000	$46	67
14890 Holmur St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	779 (+1%)	10mo	$40,598	$52	61
7300 Ellsworth St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	836 (+9%)	10mo	$30,000	$36	56
14830 Greenlawn St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-12%)	13mo	$15,000	$22	52
14811 Northlawn St	0.42mi	3/1.0	851 (+11%)	16mo	$79,000	$93	50
14668 Greenlawn St	0.23mi	3/2.0	870 (+13%)	22mo	$73,000	$84	45
6445 SW Globe St S	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	795 (+4%)	18mo	$30,000	$38	44
14284 Kentucky St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	825 (+7%)	8mo	$27,000	$33	42
15841 Tuller St	0.74mi	3/1.0	816 (+6%)	23mo	$27,200	$33	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $16,159
• Equity at exit: $12,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $63,716
• Equity at exit: $7,003

Cash invested: $22,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48238

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $679

Max offer price $81,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $422	+0% $399	+5% $376	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $352	+0% $399	+5% $446	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $440	-0.5pp $420	base $399	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,250
• Closing costs: $2,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14950 Stoepel St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	600	$900	$1.50	25d	1	0.26mi
14656 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	18d	1	0.31mi
14550 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	17d	1	0.43mi
14570 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	13d	1	0.48mi
2690 Ewald Cir Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	25d	4	0.53mi
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	0.62mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	44d	1	0.67mi
13620 Tuller St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1064	$1,374	$1.29	13d	1	0.69mi
2926 Ewald Cir Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	18d	1	0.71mi
2034 Ewald Cir Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	5d	1	0.74mi
3812 W Grand St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,025	$0.93	17d	1	0.75mi
4045 Clements St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	25d	1	0.81mi
4045 Clements St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	44d	1	0.81mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	5d	1	0.89mi
3824 Tyler St Apt 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,523	$1.69	17d	1	0.96mi
4203 Tyler St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$895	$0.94	44d	1	0.96mi
3783 Tyler St Unit Lower Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	44d	1	1.00mi
15839 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	18d	1	1.02mi
15878 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	1.03mi
15765 Washburn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1093	$950	$0.87	44d	1	1.03mi
14881 Mendota St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,100	$1.07	25d	1	1.03mi
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	17d	1	1.08mi
12663 Stoepel St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	18d	1	1.12mi
12663 Stoepel St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	22d	1	1.12mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	18d	1	1.14mi
15512 Mendota St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	931	$1,200	$1.29	5d	1	1.16mi
15512 Mendota St Apt 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.16mi
12415 Monica St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.19mi
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	17d	1	1.21mi
2433 Pasadena St Unit 2435 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	44d	1	1.22mi
16174 Princeton St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	44d	1	1.24mi
16174 Princeton St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	20d	1	1.24mi
13639 La Salle Blvd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$695	$0.87	11d	1	1.27mi
15760 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	44d	1	1.29mi
4268 Cortland St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	44d	1	1.30mi
15388 Appoline St #203 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	44d	1	1.35mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	18d	1	1.37mi
17147 Monica St Unit 2 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	1.37mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	5d	1	1.45mi
17215 Warrington Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $81,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $81,000 Active 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home on Detroit!!!! this well-maintained property boasts newer windows, an updated kitchen, and an updated bathroom. Enjoy the convenience of being close to fantastic restaurants, shops, major highways, and more. Don't miss the opportunity !

15. 2026-05-23
    listed $81,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home on Detroit!!!! this well-maintained property boasts newer windows, an updated kitchen, and an updated bathroom. Enjoy the convenience of being close to fantastic restaurants, shops, major highways, and more. Don't miss the opportunity !

16. 2026-03-03
    historical
17. 2026-03-03
    historical
18. 2025-12-03
    price $81,000
19. 2025-12-02
    price $81,000
20. 2025-07-05
    listed $86,000 Active
21. 2025-07-05
    listed $86,000 Active
22. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus $75,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,537
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$2,356
• Taxable income: $3,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$889
• After-tax cash flow: $3,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,731
• Household income: $33,315
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2172.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.96%
• Current HPI: 189.6227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $81,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-23 Listed $81,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $81,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $81,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-05 Listed $86,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-05 Listed $86,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.