40 Rockville Ave

Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$850,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,946 sqft · Built 1922 · MultiFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,459/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$1,268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,356
• Net cashflow: $-623/mo
• Annual: $-7,474/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-311/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $740k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $646k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $646k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oceanside Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #75 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: School 5 (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 448 students, 15% FRL); School 9M-Oceanside Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 817 students, 16% FRL); School 7-Oceanside Senior High School (math 91% / reading 96%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,692 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $400k; list at $850k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in Rockville Centre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,459/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($157k/yr) (locally 732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?