40 Rockville Ave · Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$850,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,946 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1922 4,000 sqft lot $437/sqft · 34% below area Est $1282k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to 40 Rockville Avenue, a rare two-family opportunity filled with timeless charm and character on a beautiful tree-lined block. From the moment you arrive, this well-maintained home showcases classic architectural details, custom molding, and hardwood floors that reflect the rich history and warmth of the property. A welcoming mudroom leads into the main level, which features two spacious bedrooms, one full bath, ample storage, abundant natural light, and impressive 9-foot ceilings. The layout flows seamlessly with direct access to the beautifully landscaped backyard, creating an ideal setting for everyday living and entertaining. The upper unit also offers two bedrooms and one full

Key facts

• 4,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1922

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: (No additional financial amenities provided)
• Financial info: (No investor or income/expense details provided)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Driveway; On-street parking; Total of 4 parking spaces; One garage space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable connected; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Duplex; Total building area approximately 1,946 square feet
• Construction: (Year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Shingle siding; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: (No kitchen appliance details provided)
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: (No laundry or utility room details provided)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-311/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $740k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $646k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $646k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in Rockville Centre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oceanside Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #75 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: School 5 (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 448 students, 15% FRL); School 9M-Oceanside Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 817 students, 16% FRL); School 7-Oceanside Senior High School (math 91% / reading 96%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,692 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,459/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($157k/yr) (locally 732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $400k; list at $850k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $645,900 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,281,705
• List price: $850,000
• Delta: -33.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Vernon Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-8%)	7mo	$754,000	$419	72
60 Chestnut St	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+9%)	9mo	$900,000	$423	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-177,400
• Equity at exit: $126,738

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-205,532
• Equity at exit: $73,492

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11570

• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 21.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$914 /mo · $10,966/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,356
• Net cashflow: $-623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,247

Max offer price $739,972

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-382	+0% $-623	+5% $-863	+10% $-1,104
Rent	-10% $-1,133	-5% $-878	+0% $-623	+5% $-368	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-407	base $-623	+0.5pp $-843	+1.0pp $-1,067

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$6,460
Total (2 units)			$6,459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
80 N Centre Ave Rockville Centre, NY	3.0	1.0–3.5	1254	$5,930	$4.73	0d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $850,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $850,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $850,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $850,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $850,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $850,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $850,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $850,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $850,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $850,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $850,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $850,000 Active 1467-char remark
17. 2024-11-01
    historical $2,650
18. 2024-10-26
    listed $2,650
19. 2015-06-30
    soldstatus $400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,966 · $914/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,665 · $1,055/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,700/yr (+$142/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$10,966
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,201
• − Management: −$6,201
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$22,449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,388
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oceanside Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621570
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $100,802
• Composite: 66.68/100
• National rank: #410
• State rank: #75 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rockville Centre

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #365

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockville Centre, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 28,908
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,908
• Household income: $157,163
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -731.15%
• Current HPI: 275.9882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+112.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Rental Removed $2,650 ONEKEY
• 2024-10-26 Listed for Rent $2,650 ONEKEY
• 2015-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $10,966 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.