4557 Hendron Rd

Hendron, KY 42003

$87,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $864/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $80/mo
• Annual: $965/yr
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $24,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($965/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#244 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hendron Lone Oak Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #100 of 676 statewide, top 16%, 489 students, 50% FRL); Lone Oak Middle School (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D+, #28 of 217 statewide, top 13%, 796 students, 47% FRL); Mccracken County High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 1,999 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Hendron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.