4557 Hendron Rd · Hendron, KY 42003

$87,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1940 0.40 ac lot $73/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ADORABLE + AFFORDABLE! This recently renovated, move-in ready home is waiting for you! Recent improvements include metal roof, HVAC, windows, flooring, and fence -- all less than one year old. You are sure to love the open floor plan, spacious laundry room, and convenient location. Perfect for a small family or someone looking to downsize!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Back deck
• Fenced-in yard

Tags

• FENCED-IN YARD
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached gravel garage with 1 car space
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Fenced yard; Level lot

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($965/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in Hendron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#244 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hendron Lone Oak Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #100 of 676 statewide, top 16%, 489 students, 50% FRL); Lone Oak Middle School (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D+, #28 of 217 statewide, top 13%, 796 students, 47% FRL); Mccracken County High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 1,999 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,390 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,344
• List price: $87,000
• Delta: -59.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1205 Bleich Rd	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,164 (-2%)	1mo	$193,000	$166	76
234 Japonica Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,306 (+10%)	0mo	$220,000	$168	53
1131 Bleich Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,274 (+7%)	13mo	$223,000	$175	47
4902 Old Mayfield Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,040 (-13%)	14mo	$137,000	$132	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-8,961
• Equity at exit: $12,972

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,151
• Equity at exit: $7,522

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42003

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $762

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $105	+0% $80	+5% $56	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $46	+0% $80	+5% $115	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $103	base $80	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Jason Dr Paducah, KY	2.0	1.5	1000	$895	$0.90	44d	1	1.41mi
143 Glenn St Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $87,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $87,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $87,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $87,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $87,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $87,000 Active 874-char remark
18. 2023-10-17
    listed $159,900 Active
19. 2023-03-09
    soldstatus $136,900
20. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $136,900 Closed

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    ADORABLE + AFFORDABLE! This recently renovated, move-in ready home is waiting for you! Recent improvements include metal roof, HVAC, windows, flooring, and fence -- all less than one year old. You are sure to love the open floor plan, spacious laundry room, and convenient location. Perfect for a small family or someone looking to downsize!

21. 2023-01-14
    price $139,900

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    ADORABLE + AFFORDABLE! This recently renovated, move-in ready home is waiting for you! Recent improvements include metal roof, HVAC, windows, flooring, and fence -- all less than one year old. You are sure to love the open floor plan, spacious laundry room, and convenient location. Perfect for a small family or someone looking to downsize!

22. 2023-01-06
    listed $142,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    ADORABLE + AFFORDABLE! This recently renovated, move-in ready home is waiting for you! Recent improvements include metal roof, HVAC, windows, flooring, and fence -- all less than one year old. You are sure to love the open floor plan, spacious laundry room, and convenient location. Perfect for a small family or someone looking to downsize!

23. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $120,111
24. 1995-11-01
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable loss: −$446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$107
• After-tax cash flow: $1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccracken County
• NCES district ID: 2103960
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,976
• Composite: 39.84/100
• National rank: #3871
• State rank: #16 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hendron

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #12105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hendron, KY
• Population (ZIP): 29,384

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
• Current HPI: 236.3013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+97.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $87,000 WKRMLS
• 2023-10-17 Listed $159,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $136,900 Public Records
• 2023-03-07 Sold (MLS) $136,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-01-14 Price Changed $139,900 WKRMLS
• 2023-01-06 Listed $142,000 WKRMLS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $120,111 Public Records
• 1995-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,312 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.