9418 Wilkins Rd

Durham, NC 27503

$399,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,054 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-352/mo
• Annual: $-4,222/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Lucas Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #416 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 371 students, 70% FRL); Northern High (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,308 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.