9418 Wilkins Rd · Durham, NC 27503

$399,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1972 0.92 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful brick ranch home located in Bahama, North Carolina, offering peaceful country living with plenty of privacy, located within walking distance to Lake Mickie. Nestled on a spacious lot, this well maintained home features a classic ranch layout with comfortable living spaces and abundant natural light. Enjoy quiet surroundings, mature trees and room to relax or entertain outdoors. The property blends county serenity with convenient access to shopping and schools. Short drive to RTP, Downtown Durham and Roxboro, NC. Don't miss out on this one.

Key facts

• Short drive to rtp
• Brick ranch home
• Spacious lot

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• QUIET SURROUNDINGS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• SHORT DRIVE TO RTP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Durham
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Brick construction; Block and brick/mortar foundation; Shingle roof; Built using traditional house structure
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.92-acre lot; Publicly maintained road access; Zoned RR

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Heated basement; Carpet flooring; Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Lucas Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #416 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 371 students, 70% FRL); Northern High (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,308 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,526 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-87,217
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-105,427
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27503

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,195/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,091

Max offer price $336,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-126	-5% $-239	+0% $-352	+5% $-465	+10% $-578
Rent	-10% $-561	-5% $-456	+0% $-352	+5% $-247	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-250	base $-352	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $399,000 Active
17. 2026-05-06
    historical
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $425,000 Active
19. 2026-03-31
    historical
20. 2026-02-21
    price $419,000
21. 2025-11-25
    price $429,000
22. 2025-10-06
    listed $445,000 Active
23. 2025-10-01
    historical
24. 2025-08-14
    listed $449,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,195 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,272 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,077/yr (+$90/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,195
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,539
• − Management: −$2,539
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$11,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 288,747
• Population (ZIP): 5,092

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.90%
• Current HPI: 255.0376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $399,000 TMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $425,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $419,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $429,000 TMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $445,000 TMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $449,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,195 · +30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.