3725 Lancer Cir

Pearland, TX 77581

$300,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,008 sqft · Built 2019 · Townhouse · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$866
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-105/mo
• Annual: $-1,264/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $281k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C J Harris El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 561 students, 53% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.