3725 Lancer Cir · Pearland, TX 77581

$300,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,008 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2019 3,990 sqft lot Est $297k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 2-story townhome offering an open and functional floor plan filled with natural light. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and opens to the family room, making it ideal for entertaining and everyday living. A formal dining room and convenient half bath are located downstairs. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious primary suite with double sinks and a walk-in closet, two secondary bedrooms and a versatile gameroom/loft. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered patio overlooking the fenced backyard with no back neighbors. The HOA maintains the front lawn and sprinkler system for easy, low-maintenance living. Commu

Key facts

• Scenic pond
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• SCENIC POND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features: HVAC, thermostat, and windows
• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee of $1,200 covering common areas and grounds maintenance; Community has curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story home; Built in 2019; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence; Sprinkler/irrigation; Backs to greenbelt/park; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Crown molding; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C J Harris El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 561 students, 53% FRL); Pearland J H East (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,390 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,184
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3736 Lancer Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+1%)	0mo	$289,900	$143	96
3804 Lancer Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+1%)	7mo	$305,000	$151	89
3821 Lancer Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,072 (+3%)	8mo	$310,000	$150	84
3710 Lancer Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,033 (+1%)	15mo	$299,000	$147	83
3712 Lancer Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,025 (+1%)	18mo	$294,900	$146	81
3817 Lancer Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,008 (0%)	19mo	$299,000	$149	79
3735 Lancer Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+1%)	22mo	$299,000	$148	79
3803 Lancer Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,025 (+1%)	20mo	$287,000	$142	78
3805 Lancer Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,072 (+3%)	18mo	$299,995	$145	76
3729 Lancer Cir	0.01mi	3/2.5	2,072 (+3%)	23mo	$310,000	$150	75
3819 Lancer Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,889 (-6%)	23mo	$289,500	$153	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,175
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-56,095
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$741 /mo · $8,891/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,214

Max offer price $281,390

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $-20	+0% $-105	+5% $-190	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-227	+0% $-105	+5% $16	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $-29	base $-105	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3803 Lancer Cir Unit 1467759P Pearland, TX	2.0	2.0	2034	$3,462	$1.70	0d	1	0.10mi
2112 Stonehollow Ct Pearland, TX	4.0	3.0	2436	$3,200	$1.31	0d	1	0.93mi
3222 Maryfield Ln Pearland, TX	4.0	2.5	2504	$2,525	$1.01	0d	1	1.03mi
3318 Cactus Heights Ln Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	2091	$2,585	$1.24	14d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $300,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,891 · $741/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,891 · $741/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$8,891
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,958
• − Management: −$2,958
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+74.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,891 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.