1991 Oriole Ct

Princeton, TX 75407

$295,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,546 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,455/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$739
• HOA: −$86
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-433/mo
• Annual: $-5,192/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lacy El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 670 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.