16682 Kelton Ln

Iola, TX 77861

$239,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$517
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $40/mo
• Annual: $480/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($480/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (4.1% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,107 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Iola ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #163 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 12 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.