16682 Kelton Ln · Iola, TX 77861

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 1.08 ac lot Est $239k · at est. ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into a quiet stretch of Iola, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous 1+ acre lot and offers a peaceful setting that’s hard to come by. The layout features an open flow with plenty of natural light, a functional kitchen with modern finishes, and a comfortable living area anchored by high ceilings. The primary suite includes a spacious setup with a walk-in shower and dual vanities, while the attached 2-car garage adds everyday convenience. Outside, the wide-open space gives you room to enjoy the surroundings, whether for relaxing, small projects, or simply having space to breathe. Some repairs may be needed, giving you the chance to add your own touch and value. Located w

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Generous acre lot
• Dual vanities

Tags

• GENEROUS ACRE LOT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DUAL VANITIES
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; One-story; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2023; Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17x18); Bedroom on first floor (11x10); Bedroom on first floor (10x12)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($480/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,107 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Iola ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #163 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $229,128 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,856
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16682 Kelton Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,636 (0%)	0mo	$239,000	$146	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $132,821
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $389,346
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77861

• Home prices YoY: 23.3%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,006/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $108	+0% $40	+5% $-28	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-50	+0% $40	+5% $131	+10% $221
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $101	base $40	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $239,000 Active
3. 2026-03-23
   price $279,000
4. 2026-03-12
   price $299,000
5. 2026-03-03
   price $309,000
6. 2026-02-18
   status Active
7. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
8. 2026-01-27
   status Active
9. 2026-01-20
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-01-06
    price $329,500
11. 2025-12-04
    price $345,500
12. 2025-12-01
    historical
13. 2025-11-11
    price $354,500
14. 2025-09-29
    listed $367,500 Active
15. 2025-05-03
    listed $439,000 Active
16. 2025-02-24
    historical $2,800
17. 2025-02-20
    listed $2,800
18. 2025-02-13
    historical $2,800
19. 2025-01-28
    listed $2,800
20. 2024-12-12
    listed $449,900 Active
21. 2024-10-10
    historical $2,800
22. 2024-10-05
    listed $2,800
23. 2023-10-17
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2023-09-23
    status Pending
25. 2023-09-20
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2023-08-22
    listed $403,000 Active
27. 2023-08-16
    status Active
28. 2023-08-10
    historical
29. 2023-07-13
    listed $403,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,006 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,006 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$5,006
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$827
• After-tax cash flow: $1,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a 1+ acre lot in Iola is in good condition with modern finishes and a peaceful setting. It's move-in ready with some cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Add a small garden — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Add a small garden — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iola ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824240
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,213
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #2979
• State rank: #163 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iola

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #19600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,785

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.14%
• Current HPI: 264.958
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.7% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $279,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $299,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $309,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Contingent — BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $329,500 BCSRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $345,500 BCSRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $354,500 BCSRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $367,500 BCSRMLS
• 2025-05-03 Listed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Rental Removed $2,800 BCSRMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed for Rent $2,800 BCSRMLS
• 2025-02-13 Rental Removed $2,800 BCSRMLS
• 2025-01-28 Listed for Rent $2,800 BCSRMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listed $449,900 BCSRMLS
• 2024-10-10 Rental Removed $2,800 BCSRMLS
• 2024-10-05 Listed for Rent $2,800 BCSRMLS
• 2023-10-17 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2023-09-23 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2023-09-20 Contingent — BCSRMLS
• 2023-08-22 Listed $403,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-08-16 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2023-08-10 Delisted — BCSRMLS
• 2023-07-13 Listed $403,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+231.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,006 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.