2247 Muddy Creek Rd

Winchester, KY 40391

$89,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,145 sqft · Built 1970 · Other · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $465/mo
• Annual: $5,585/yr
• Cap rate: 14.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.44%
• DSCR: 2.27
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#393 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William G. Conkwright Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 505 students, 70% FRL); Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 4.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.