2247 Muddy Creek Rd · Winchester, KY 40391

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,145 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 1970 1.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For comp purposes

Key facts

• Large deck
• 1.37 acre lot
• 1.37 acre lot

Tags

• 1.37 ACRE LOT
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a house (structure type)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 6 rooms total
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 4.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#393 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William G. Conkwright Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 505 students, 70% FRL); Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.44%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $15,316
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $51,897
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40391

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $930

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $491	+0% $465	+5% $440	+10% $415
Rent	-10% $345	-5% $405	+0% $465	+5% $525	+10% $585
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $488	base $465	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Sam Winston Way Winchester, KY	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,499	$1.36	15d	1	1.29mi
1071 Two Mile Rd Winchester, KY	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,299	$1.18	15d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-03
   listed $89,000 Active
3. 2022-09-09
   historical
4. 2022-06-29
   price $169,900
5. 2022-06-15
   price $174,900
6. 2022-04-15
   listed $179,900 Active
7. 2020-06-23
   soldstatus $132,000 Sold 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   For comp purposes

8. 2020-06-23
   soldstatus $132,000

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   For comp purposes

9. 2020-04-14
   listed $132,000 Active 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   For comp purposes

10. 2020-01-06
    soldstatus $32,000 Sold
11. 2020-01-06
    soldstatus $32,000
12. 2019-12-05
    status Pending
13. 2019-12-02
    status Active
14. 2019-10-15
    historical
15. 2019-09-03
    status Active
16. 2019-08-14
    status Pending
17. 2019-07-24
    listed $39,000 Active
18. 2019-05-16
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 2005-05-27
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $79,000
21. 2005-02-24
    historical
22. 2004-12-28
    listed $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $4,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $4,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County
• NCES district ID: 2101200
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,282
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #6469
• State rank: #64 of 165 in KY

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #393
• US rank: #18931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clark County · 36,796 people
• City population: 36,796
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 36,796
• Household income: $64,144
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,849 people
• By 2030: 35,616 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 33,195 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 29,439 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 24,744 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 66.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.24%
• Current HPI: 283.7839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $89,000 ImagineMLS
• 2022-09-09 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2022-06-29 Price Changed $169,900 ImagineMLS
• 2022-06-15 Price Changed $174,900 ImagineMLS
• 2022-04-15 Listed $179,900 ImagineMLS
• 2020-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-23 Sold (MLS) $132,000 ImagineMLS
• 2020-04-14 Listed $132,000 ImagineMLS
• 2020-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-06 Sold (MLS) $32,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-12-05 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2019-12-02 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2019-10-15 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2019-09-03 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2019-08-14 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2019-07-24 Listed $39,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-04 Sold (MLS) $79,000 ImagineMLS
• 2005-02-24 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2004-12-28 Listed $88,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.