3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,735 sqft ·
Built 1969
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,986/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,158
Tax + insurance
−$459
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$417
Net cashflow
$-48/mo
Annual
$-578/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.93%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$61,852
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-578/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (3.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (10.1% below list).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $199k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 241 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $15k; list at $221k implies a 1363% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6XKSD401A4G543
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29