5144 Hill Farm Dr NE

Woodstock, GA 30188

$189,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,939/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $259/mo
• Annual: $3,113/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.85%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#46 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nicholson Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #380 of 1,228 statewide, top 33%, 407 students, 36% FRL); Mccleskey Middle School (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #140 of 470 statewide, top 30%, 570 students, 34% FRL); Kell High School (math 28% / reading 21%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,506 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $142k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.3% in Woodstock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.