45025 Mahoney St

Callahan, FL 32011

$280,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,520/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-451/mo
• Annual: $-5,415/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (45.7% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#408 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $280k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.6% in Callahan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.