5939 W River Rd

Fillmore, NY 14735

$33,500B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $745/mo
• Annual: $8,942/yr
• Cap rate: 32.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.33%
• DSCR: 5.24
• 1% rule: 3.69%
• Cash to close: $9,380

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($232 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#868 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fillmore Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #359 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.