5939 W River Rd · Fillmore, NY 14735

$33,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1880 1.39 ac lot $20/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks with this 3 bed 1 bath home. Sitting on 1.39 acres. Now is your chance to bring the vision and build sweat equity.

Key facts

• 1.39 acre lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#868 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fillmore Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #359 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($232 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $31,490 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.33%
• DSCR: 5.24
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,678
• List price: $33,500
• Delta: -63.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $55,975
• Equity at exit: $19,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 99.2%
• Equity multiple: 14.63×
• Total profit: $127,878
• Equity at exit: $34,895

Cash invested: $9,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14735

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $502/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $293

Max offer price $33,500

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,375
• Closing costs: $1,005
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $33,500 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $33,500 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $33,500 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,500 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $33,500 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $33,500 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,500 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,500 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $33,500 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $33,500 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $33,500 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $33,500 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $33,500 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $33,500 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $33,500 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this 3 bed 1 bath home. Sitting on 1.39 acres. Now is your chance to bring the vision and build sweat equity.

16. 2026-03-30
    listed $36,400 Active 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this 3 bed 1 bath home. Sitting on 1.39 acres. Now is your chance to bring the vision and build sweat equity.

17. 2026-03-22
    historical
18. 2025-12-22
    listed $36,400 Active
19. 2006-07-26
    soldstatus $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,877
• − Property taxes: −$502
• − Insurance: −$168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$975
• Taxable income: $8,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,146
• After-tax cash flow: $6,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fillmore Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611070
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,114
• Composite: 44.01/100
• National rank: #2889
• State rank: #359 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fillmore

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #868
• US rank: #16718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,609

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 5% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 289.3268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $33,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $36,400 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-22 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $36,400 UNYREIS
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,972 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.