2411 Herzog Rd

Alva, FL 33920

$335,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,145 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $71/mo
• Annual: $848/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($848/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (19.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $270k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#514 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 460 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.