1111 Ledgestone Ln

Branson, MO 65737

$535,000C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,400 sqft · Built 2002 · Other · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$173
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,029
• Net cashflow: $506/mo
• Annual: $6,078/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.06%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $149,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $490k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($471k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $471k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $183k; list at $535k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.