14761 San Pablo Ave

San Pablo, CA 94806

$1,849,999D-

None bd · None ba · 5,972 sqft · Built 1962 · MultiFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,702
• Tax + insurance: −$2,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,563
• Net cashflow: $1,664/mo
• Annual: $19,965/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $518,000

Investor read

• This is a 7×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $208/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.70M (8.3% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.79M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.70M (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#715 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $1.85M implies a 429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in San Pablo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $16,969/mo this rent would consume 237% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2830% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?