14761 San Pablo Ave · San Pablo, CA 94806

$1,849,999

None bd · None ba · 5,972 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1962 6,800 sqft lot $310/sqft · 45% above area Est $1277k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 8 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

14761 San Pablo Ave is an 8-unit multifamily property in San Pablo. The property is listed for $1,849,999 and generates over $270,000 in gross income. The unit mix consists of seven 2-bedroom, 1-bath units and one 1-bedroom, 1-bath unit. One unit is currently vacant. Each unit has one parking space. The property has individual meters. The owner pays water. This is a direct multifamily investment opportunity with existing income, one vacant unit, individual metering, and parking for each unit.

Key facts

• 6,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.85M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $207/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.70M (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.70M (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in San Pablo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#715 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $16,957/mo this rent would consume 237% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2830% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.79M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $1.85M implies a 429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,695,700 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,277,413
• List price: $1,849,999
• Delta: 44.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-193,779
• Equity at exit: $275,841

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-30,425
• Equity at exit: $159,954

Cash invested: $518,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 72.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,702
• Tax from tax record: −$1,269 /mo · $15,232/yr
• Insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,561
• Net cashflow: $1,654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,863

Max offer price $1,849,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,702	-5% $2,178	+0% $1,654	+5% $1,131	+10% $607
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $984	+0% $1,654	+5% $2,324	+10% $2,994
Rate	-1.0pp $2,586	-0.5pp $2,125	base $1,654	+0.5pp $1,175	+1.0pp $687

8-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	2	1	$14,952
1× unit	1	1	$2,003
Total (8 units)			$16,957

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $462,500
• Closing costs: $55,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2341 21st St San Pablo, CA	3.0	1.0	5816	$2,750	$0.47	5d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,849,999 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,849,999 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,849,999 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,849,999 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,849,999 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,849,999 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $1,849,999 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    14761 San Pablo Ave is an 8-unit multifamily property in San Pablo. The property is listed for $1,849,999 and generates over $270,000 in gross income. The unit mix consists of seven 2-bedroom, 1-bath units and one 1-bedroom, 1-bath unit. One unit is currently vacant. Each unit has one parking space. The property has individual meters. The owner pays water. This is a direct multifamily investment opportunity with existing income, one vacant unit, individual metering, and parking for each unit.

16. 1996-09-06
    soldstatus $350,000
17. 1988-06-15
    soldstatus $375,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $15,232 · $1,269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,232 · $1,269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $203,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$103,629
• − Property taxes: −$15,232
• − Insurance: −$9,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,279
• − Management: −$16,279
• − Depreciation: −$53,818
• Taxable loss: −$11,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,641
• After-tax cash flow: $22,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Pablo

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #21354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Pablo, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+393.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $1,849,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 1988-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,232 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.