1446 Geranium Dr

Mascotte, FL 34753

$364,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,409/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-643/mo
• Annual: $-7,713/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $102,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-643 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (34.0% below list).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 744 students, 63% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 16122% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.