1446 Geranium Dr · Mascotte, FL 34753

$364,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 278 Days on market

Built 2023 8,761 sqft lot Est $373k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Huge Reduction! Take this opportunity as primary residence or as an investment! Unique chance to get this beautiful home! Modern and spacious 4 bedrooms and 2 baths single-family home. You are looking to create a personalized living space in this charming property. The oversize island in the kitchen is a true highlight, with ample cabinet space provides storage solutions, with Stainless steel appliances add a modern touch. Enjoy the serene backyard with a charming porch—ideal for outdoor relaxation or summer BBQs. Schedule a tour to see this modern and delightful House!

Key facts

• Charming porch
• Oversize island
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OVERSIZE ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• SERENE BACKYARD
• CHARMING PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total monthly fees reported as $50; total annual fees reported as $600
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported; Total acreage listed as 0.2 acres
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Empire Management Group); Monthly HOA approximately $50; quarterly association fee $150; Pets allowed: dogs OK

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Homesteaded
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with public records living area of 1,696 (sq ft) and total building area of 2,307 (sq ft)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-643 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 744 students, 63% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 16122% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,887 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,120
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1948 Piedmont Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-1%)	6mo	$305,000	$182	77
3324 Pink Oleander Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,541 (-9%)	10mo	$338,350	$220	71
1725 Garden View St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,701 (+0%)	7mo	$262,000	$154	65
1651 Geranium Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,541 (-9%)	22mo	$348,000	$226	52
1638 Geranium Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,541 (-9%)	24mo	$343,980	$223	51
1130 Union Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,842 (+9%)	18mo	$343,000	$186	48
290 Tuscanooga Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-6%)	16mo	$400,000	$251	47
1665 Hideaway Flat St	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,944 (+15%)	15mo	$335,000	$172	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $157,897
• Equity at exit: $328,812

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $497,274
• Equity at exit: $709,095

Cash invested: $102,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34753

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,156/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,222

Max offer price $251,446

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-436	-5% $-539	+0% $-643	+5% $-746	+10% $-849
Rent	-10% $-833	-5% $-738	+0% $-643	+5% $-548	+10% $-452
Rate	-1.0pp $-459	-0.5pp $-550	base $-643	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,248
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1665 Luft Ln Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,030	$1.21	24d	1	0.27mi
232 Boca Ciega Rd Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1280	$2,095	$1.64	13d	1	0.28mi
1126 Union Ave Mascotte, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,265	$1.14	24d	1	0.47mi
1676 Gopher Tree St Mascotte, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,285	$1.15	5d	1	0.49mi
1864 Piedmont Ct Mascotte, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,290	$1.15	24d	1	0.50mi
2425 Begonia St Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,350	$1.19	24d	1	0.61mi
614 Huey St Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,071	$1.32	5d	1	0.64mi
1600 Mayaro Ct Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,000	$1.33	18d	1	0.65mi
4025 E Cardinal Pines Dr Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,100	$1.67	5d	1	0.89mi
405 Eventide Ave Mascotte, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	21d	1	1.09mi
6337 Chorus Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,250	$1.27	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $364,990 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,990 Active 277 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,990 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,990 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,990 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $364,990 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $364,990 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $364,990 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $364,990 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $364,990 Active 263 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $364,990 Active 262 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $364,990 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $364,990 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    historical $2,250
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $2,250
16. 2025-12-22
    price $364,990
17. 2025-09-13
    listed $384,990 Active
18. 2025-03-27
    historical $2,150
19. 2025-03-19
    listed $2,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,156 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,156 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,445
• − Property taxes: −$5,156
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$14,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,985
• Household income: $83,868
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 25% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.01%
• Current HPI: 281.96
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Rental Removed $2,250 STELLARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $2,250 STELLARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $364,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Listed $384,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Rental Removed $2,150 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed for Rent $2,150 STELLARMLS

Property tax history

+135.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,156 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.