34637 76th St

Paw Paw Lake, MI 49043

$85,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,191 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,278/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $426/mo
• Annual: $5,112/yr
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.35%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $23,940

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($591 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Covert Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #630 of 760 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Covert Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,172 of 1,397 statewide, top 85%, 140 students, 90% FRL); Covert Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #425 of 493 statewide, top 87%, 65 students, 92% FRL); Covert High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #596 of 713 statewide, top 86%, 103 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.