34637 76th St · Paw Paw Lake, MI 49043

$85,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,191 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1965 5.15 ac lot $39/sqft · 76% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Large kitchen
• 5 acres of land

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LARGE REAR DECK
• 5 ACRES OF LAND
• CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.5% in Paw Paw Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Covert Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #630 of 760 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($591 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $75,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.35%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,439
• List price: $85,500
• Delta: -75.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $56,093
• Equity at exit: $58,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $142,875
• Equity at exit: $109,841

Cash invested: $23,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49043

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $739

Max offer price $85,500

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $450	+0% $426	+5% $402	+10% $378
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $376	+0% $426	+5% $477	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $448	base $426	+0.5pp $404	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,375
• Closing costs: $2,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

2. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

3. 2026-05-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

4. 2026-05-17
   historical Active Under Contract 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

5. 2026-05-17
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

6. 2026-05-17
   historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

7. 2026-05-06
   price $85,500 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

8. 2026-05-06
   price $85,500 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

9. 2026-05-06
   price $85,500

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

10. 2026-04-27
    status Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

11. 2026-04-27
    status Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

12. 2026-04-27
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

13. 2026-04-09
    historical Active Under Contract 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

14. 2026-04-09
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

15. 2026-04-09
    historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

16. 2026-03-06
    price $99,900 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

17. 2026-03-06
    price $99,900 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

18. 2026-03-06
    price $99,900

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

19. 2025-11-04
    listed $118,150 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

20. 2025-11-04
    historical

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

21. 2025-11-03
    historical
22. 2025-11-02
    listed $118,150 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

23. 2025-11-02
    listed $118,150 Active

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Looking for some land and large living area here is the place for you, 5 bedrooms 2 full baths, living room and large family room, large kitchen with room to eat in. Large rear deck with slider off of family room. 5 Acres of land with a 2 car detached garage. close to Lake Michigan and South Haven area.

24. 2025-10-14
    status Active
25. 2025-10-14
    status Active
26. 2025-10-06
    historical
27. 2025-10-05
    historical
28. 2025-09-12
    price $118,150
29. 2025-09-11
    price $118,150
30. 2025-09-11
    price $118,150
31. 2025-07-17
    status Active
32. 2025-07-17
    status Active
33. 2025-07-13
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
34. 2025-07-13
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2025-07-10
    price $125,100
36. 2025-07-09
    price $125,100
37. 2025-07-09
    price $125,100
38. 2025-06-13
    price $133,000
39. 2025-06-13
    price $133,000
40. 2025-06-13
    price $133,000
41. 2025-05-09
    listed $139,000 Active
42. 2025-05-09
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,789
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − Depreciation: −$2,487
• Taxable income: $3,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$956
• After-tax cash flow: $4,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covert Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2610980
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,349
• Composite: 21.13/100
• National rank: #13687
• State rank: #630 of 760 in MI

Livability — Paw Paw Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #11496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 27% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.83%
• Current HPI: 192.9859
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-38.5% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $85,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $85,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $85,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $99,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $118,150 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-02 Listed $118,150 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed $118,150 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $118,150 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $118,150 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $118,150 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-13 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-13 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $125,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $125,100 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $125,100 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $133,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $133,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $133,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $139,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-09 Listed $139,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,199 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.