4004 Peck St

Santa Fe, TX 77517

$417,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,626/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,187
• Tax + insurance: −$774
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,751
• Net cashflow: $14,914/mo
• Annual: $178,965/yr
• Cap rate: 49.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 153.28%
• DSCR: 7.82
• 1% rule: 5.43%
• Cash to close: $116,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $417k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($179k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $417k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy J Wollam El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 627 students, 60% FRL); Santa Fe J H (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,009 students, 52% FRL); Santa Fe H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,369 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $117k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 49.2% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.