3853 Chimney Creek Dr

Virginia Beach, VA 23462

$290,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,527 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-79/mo
• Annual: $-942/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-942/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: White Oaks Elementary (math 51% / reading 64%, grade C+, #588 of 1,108 statewide, top 54%, 679 students, 54% FRL); Larkspur Middle (math 60% / reading 72%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,536 students, 60% FRL); Green Run High (math 64% / reading 69%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,517 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 28% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $195k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.